Redesigning the Upstream Emergency Relief Supply Chain: An Empirical Assessment

This paper empirically studies (i) forecasting emergency relief aid shipments and (ii) redesigning upstream humanitarian supply chains as means to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of disaster response. The United States Agency for International Development provided unique data about its emergency food aid shipments over a period of about eleven years. We find that while it is not possible to forecast USAID's future food aid shipments at commodity and country level, there is a trend of shipping most food aid to Africa, which could be useful in prepositioning decisions. Moreover, we provide evidence that global sourcing could offer significant benefits over sourcing only in the donor country. Sourcing location decisions should be based on the type of commodity as well as the geographic location and economic situation of the recipient country. We believe that our findings will contribute to the ongoing discussion about the efficiency of USAID's international food aid programs and its mandate to source only US grown food commodities.